Three Caribbean islands and Morocco are likely to join the red list in the next review of travel guidance, experts have forecast.
Jamaica, St Lucia and Dominica have experienced steep rises in Covid cases, while the north African country has struggled to recover from its highest ever spike in infections, which peaked earlier this month.
They are set to be downgraded from amber alongside as part of the traffic light lists update expected later this week, according to analysis by travel consultants The PC Agency.
The analysis also indicates eight green countries, including three other popular Caribbean destinations, could be downgraded to amber: Israel, Croatia, Madeira, Lithuania, Montserrat, Anguilla, Antigua and Turks and Caicos.
The agency, which correctly predicted all the green list additions at the last review in early August, also found Covid rates in some popular European destinations were high enough for them to be downgraded.
But, CEO Paul Charles said: ‘Much of Europe won’t change because the government would create utter chaos at our borders during the Bank Holiday weekend and week if they chose to turn some of the most popular countries red, such as Balearics or Spain, and force so many people into hotel quarantine.
Just five countries were forecast to be upgraded from amber to green: Poland, Bhutan, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Saudi Arabia.
Ministers have also faced mounting pressure to address unfair pricing by private travel test providers.
Holidaymakers complain the complicated system of testing requirements built around the traffic light system has made them more vulnerable to rip-off deals by companies, who are often recommended by the government.
Health Secretary Sajid Javid said on Sunday more than 80 companies have been issued a two-strike warning for listing prices on the Gov.uk ‘find a travel test provider page’ which are lower than the price customers are told to pay at checkout on their own websites.
Another 57 companies have been removed from the page.
The PC Agency said a change to testing rules was still unlikely, but expects the travel update to announce a clampdown by the competition authorities.
Mr Charles continued: ‘It is shameful that Ministers and the regulator have waited until the end of August before taking serious action against cowboy providers.
‘So many families have been forced to pay excessive costs for testing over the summer holidays, often for tests that aren’t really needed for fully-jabbed citizens returning from green countries.
‘The testing regime has put off consumers from travelling and failed to help the travel industry recover fully over the crucial summer period.
The 82 companies warned by the Department of Health made up nearly a fifth of all providers whose pricing and service standards were reviewed.
The PC Agency boss added: ‘A combination of the traffic lights system and testing have been a major barrier to higher consumer confidence.
‘They have to be overhauled significantly to boost bookings and help the travel sector recover.’